RISK MANAGEMENT AND CONTINUITY OF THE EDUCATIONAL PROCESS THROUGH SCENARIO PLANNING AND RESPONSE TRIGGERS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31110/LRDTinEdu-1.2Keywords:
risk management in higher education, educational continuity, scenario planning, trigger-response system, emergency remote teaching, business continuity planning, crisis management, armed conflict and education, pandemic resilience, EdBCPAbstract
The study addresses the problem of ensuring the continuity of the educational process in higher education institutions (HEIs) under conditions of a compound crisis – specifically, the simultaneous occurrence of a pandemic and an armed conflict, as experienced in Ukraine during 2020–2025. The primary objective was to develop and experimentally verify an integrated risk management model based on scenario planning and a trigger-response system designed to maintain educational continuity regardless of the nature or scale of the crisis. A mixed-methods research design was employed, combining a quasi-experimental pedagogical intervention with quantitative surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, document analysis, and structured observation; the study was conducted at the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine with a total sample of 535 participants, including academic staff, administrative personnel, and students. Diagnostic findings revealed a critically low baseline level of institutional readiness (Overall Readiness Index M = 2.39 out of 5.00), with 84.3% of respondents confirming the absence of a documented Business Continuity Plan. A four-level color-coded trigger-response system (green/yellow/orange/red) and four scenario protocols were introduced in the experimental group during the formative stage (2021–2023) and applied in real crisis events, including large-scale power outages, cyberattacks, and active hostilities near Kyiv. Control-stage measurements (2024–2025) demonstrated statistically significant improvements across all indicators in the experimental group compared to the control group (p < .001), with very large effect sizes (Cohen's d = 1.67–2.21); the Overall Readiness Index rose from 2.41 to 4.12 (+71.0%), while the mean crisis response time decreased from 18.3 to 3.7 hours (−79.8%). The study identified two novel phenomena specific to prolonged crisis contexts: trigger fatigue (declining protocol adherence after repeated activations) and readiness asymmetry (higher compliance among administrative staff than among academic staff and students). The proposed Educational Business Continuity Planning (EdBCP) model advances existing scholarship by integrating bidirectional trigger transitions – covering not only escalation but also structured de-escalation – and by providing an empirically validated operational toolkit applicable to HEIs operating in high-risk environments.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Nina Tverezovska, Iryna Demchenko, Tetiana Hryhorenko, Nataliia Slobodianiuk, Viktor Sydorko (Author)
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